Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
